[1/10/17] With a new year come new opportunities as well as new issues to take into consideration. Here are the five most important issues to keep an eye on in 2017.
1. Trump Presidency
The most important issue facing monetary policy, at least in the United States, will be the incoming Trump Administration. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors is currently operating with two vacancies and has been for quite a while. With majorities in both the House and Senate, it is highly likely that President Trump will be able to successfully nominate two candidates to the Board. Depending on who he picks, that could put additional pressure on Chairman Janet Yellen to continue to raise the federal funds target rate throughout 2017.
2. Ongoing Weakness in Europe
The PIIGS are returning. The Greek debt crisis is still unresolved, the Italian banking sector is weakening with Monte dei Paschi likely facing a bailout this year, and Portugal is showing signs of a weakening banking sector. Add to that the difficulties continuing to face Deutsche Bank and 2017 could be a perfect storm facing the Eurozone banking sector. The big question then would be to what extent bank failures and bailouts in Europe would cause spillover effects in the United States and worldwide.
3. China Is Still a Wild Card
While the yuan continues its march towards becoming a global reserve currency, the Chinese economy faces continued difficulty and slowing growth. Private sector debt loads are high, the insurance and banking sectors are built on matchsticks, and the government is beginning to sell off some of its foreign exchange reserves to defend the yuan. 2017 could be a very interesting year for China, and for the rest of us if a Chinese collapse spills over to the West.